Tesla’s third-quarter earnings report, due Wednesday, is shaping up to be another closely watched event for investors.
The electric-vehicle maker is expected to post results ahead of Wall Street estimates, though analysts warn that sentiment may depend more on management’s outlook for electric-vehicle demand and upcoming product rollouts than on headline numbers.
According to FactSet, analysts expect Tesla to report earnings per share of 55 cents on revenue of $27.2 billion for the quarter.
The company delivered a record 497,099 vehicles, about 54,000 more than analysts projected — a performance that should help Tesla surpass expectations on both sales and profit.
Automotive revenue is projected at $20.6 billion, only modestly higher than the $20 billion posted in the same quarter last year, despite the sharp increase in unit sales.
Tesla also deployed a record 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage during the quarter, up sharply from 6.9 GWh a year earlier.
At last check on Tuesday, Tesla shares were down 0.8% at $443.92, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each edged up about 0.1%.
Tesla stock headed for a rough ride?
While the third quarter was a strong operationally, CEO Elon Musk has warned that tougher periods lie ahead.
The federal $7,500 electric-vehicle tax credit has expired, raising prices for US buyers, and Tesla’s nascent robo-taxi business — launched in June in Austin, Texas — has yet to expand.
More than the numbers, investors will be listening closely to Musk’s commentary on future demand trends, the rollout of lower-priced “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y introduced in October, and progress on the robo-taxi initiative.
Tesla shares have climbed about 11% year-to-date and roughly 103% over the past 12 months, even as unit sales fell from last year.
The rally has been driven by optimism around the company’s artificial intelligence ambitions — both for self-driving technology and its Optimus humanoid robot, which Tesla aims to commercialise next year.
Options markets suggest Tesla’s stock could swing about 6% in either direction after earnings, compared with an average 10% move over the past four reports.
With record deliveries behind it, the company’s ability to sustain demand amid tighter consumer conditions may determine whether the stock’s rally continues.
Analyst on Tesla’s Q3
In a research note, Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Tesla, maintaining a price target of $355 — implying a potential downside of about 20.7% from current levels.
The firm said it is awaiting a full model update and flagged risks such as renewed US tariffs, the loss of EV credits, and intensifying competition from Chinese automakers.
Analyst Andres Sheppard added that the introduction of lower-cost trims of Tesla’s best-selling models was “significant,” as it could attract budget-conscious buyers after the loss of the federal EV credit.
The note added that the brokerage will be “focusing on Elon’s commentary, particularly updates on the timing of several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts,” including the rollout of the robo-taxi network, launch of the Cybercab next year, adoption of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China and Europe, and the production ramp for the new Standard Model 3 and Model Y.
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